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Can Electric Motorcycles Save Lives? Causal Evidence from Uganda and Rider-Level Barriers to Electric Transition
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Hyeongchan Yun
 , Beomjun Kim, Seoyoon Jung
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Received June 1, 2026 Accepted October 7, 2026 Published online October 8, 2026
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.69841/igee.2026.018
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 Abstract
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Abstract
Urban motorcycle taxis, or boda bodas, dominate mobility in Kampala, Uganda, where aging internal combus-tion engine fleets are a primary driver of PM2.5 pollution and associated mortality burdens, yet the transition to electric vehicles (EVs) remains limited. Under a hypothesis that a transition of internal combustion engine mo-torcycles into electric vehicles will decrease the PM2.5 pollution and eventually generate health benefits, the authors incorporate quasi-experimental method with qualitative thematic analysis. Using a Differ-ence-in-Differences framework that exploits an Ebola-induced mobility lockdown in Mubende district in 2022 as an exogenous shock, we estimate that transportation accounts for approximately 13.9% of ambient PM2.5, implying that full boda boda electrification could reduce total PM2.5 by 5% and avert approximately 58 prem-ature deaths annually in Kampala. Drawing on nine in-depth interviews with boda boda riders analyzed through thematic analysis, we further investigate that adoption hesitancy reflects not attitudinal resistance but three structural barriers: 1) insufficient battery-swap infrastructure generating spatial uncertainty, 2) a policy misalignment between government objectives and riders, and 3) extractive financial structures that amplify in-come volatility under daily-income dependence. These findings suggest that realizing the public health gains from electrifying motorcycles requires rider-centered policy interventions targeting infrastructure reliability and flexible financing, rather than hardware substitution alone.
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Summary
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IGEE
